Razor-Thin Texas Primary Sets Up High-Stakes Cornyn-Paxton Showdown

(RightWardpress.com) – Texas GOP voters force establishment Senator John Cornyn into a high-stakes runoff with MAGA champion Ken Paxton, testing President Trump’s influence in the nation’s reddest state.

Story Snapshot

CBS News projects Cornyn-Paxton runoff after razor-thin polls on March 2, 2026, eve of primary election day.
Paxton claims early voting analytics give him a shot at outright victory over 50% threshold.
Record $70 million spending by Cornyn allies marks most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history.
Both candidates seek Trump endorsement amid 37% undecided voters in dead-heat polls.
Runoff set for May 26 if confirmed, prolonging intra-party fight critical for GOP Senate control.

Primary Eve Projection Signals Dead Heat

CBS News projected on March 2, 2026, a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. This came after polls showed a razor-thin contest on the eve of the March 3 election day. Paxton expressed confidence in early voting analytics suggesting a potential outright win despite the multi-candidate field. Analysts, however, anticipated the top two advancing to a May 26 showdown. Texas rules demand over 50% for victory, else the leaders proceed.

Intra-Party Clash Pits Establishment Against MAGA

The 2026 primary originates from post-2024 GOP tensions dividing establishment figures like Cornyn from the MAGA wing. Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, drew fire for bipartisan moves including the post-Uvalde gun safety bill and initial skepticism on Trump’s 2024 chances. Paxton launched his bid in April 2025, blasting Cornyn as insufficiently conservative and insufficiently pro-Trump. Early polls from January to June 2025 gave Paxton a 17-point average lead, spurring massive counter-spending.

Record Spending and Brutal Attacks Define Bitter Race

Cornyn allies poured nearly $70 million into ads by early 2026, boosting the incumbent while hammering Paxton’s ethics scandals, divorce, and alleged affair. This made the contest the costliest Senate primary ever. Polls tightened to a dead heat by August 2025, with Emerson showing Cornyn at 30%, Paxton at 29%, and 37% undecided. Rep. Wesley Hunt trailed as a distant third. Both candidates beat Democrat Colin Allred in hypotheticals, but national Republicans fear Paxton’s baggage risks the seat.

Paxton positions himself as an anti-establishment fighter leading conservative battles on abortion, religion, and against LGBTQ+ overreach. Cornyn brands himself the Texas workhorse safeguarding GOP dominance. Bitterness spilled into social media, with Paxton calling attacks desperate and Cornyn citing Paxton’s self-inflicted issues. Both court President Trump’s endorsement, pivotal for base voters frustrated with D.C. insiders.

Runoff Risks GOP Unity Amid Democrat Ambitions

A confirmed runoff delays the nominee until May 26, extending infighting and draining resources in this midterm cycle. Paxton holds higher favorability among GOP primary voters and could gain in a lower-turnout head-to-head, per Texas Politics Project analysis. Senate Leadership Fund warns a Paxton nomination demands $200 million-plus general election defense, straining national efforts. Top issues like economy and immigration energize conservatives seeking unapologetic fighters.

This battle tests MAGA strength in Texas, unbroken GOP Senate hold since 1994. Paxton’s history challenging 2020 election fraud and suing leftist policies resonates with patriots tired of establishment compromises. Cornyn stresses winnability against energized Democrats. Trump remains the kingmaker, his nod potentially crushing the old guard.